1. I still like Florida’s chances for RttT; mostly residual Bush reforms
2. I still like Louisiana’s chances for RttT given Pastorek’s leadership and RSD as improvement frame.
3. Colorado remains a sentimental favorite for RttT given Barb O’Brien’s leadership but improving data will be key to having a shot at Round 2
4. I still like Delaware’s chances for RttT. Great combo of grant incentive and Rodel’s local leadership including Vision 2015
5. Bubble favorites (will need to work on data to get phase 2): GA, NC. Sleepers include IN, UT, OH, OK, MN, VA, MO
6. Dropped off my list: Rhode Island. Love the Mayoral Academies, but with language out it looks like a long shot on data and school improvement (unless they use Mayoral Academies to replace failing schools)
7. NY and CA are complaining loudly but neither has a chance on multiple criteria.
NY and CA are not the only ones complaining, but most critics seem to forget that this is the forward leaning 5% reform component of the stimulus bill–95% will be used to backfill the status quo. As Andy Smarick pointed out, “The department will need to be very tough when evaluating applications and even tougher when monitoring grantees.”
If you haven’t seen it, New Teacher Project produced the best Race to the Top analysis to date.
States that received private grants for RttT applicationa development include: Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas.
What to watch: half of the RrrT funds get distributed by by Title 1 formula; high poverty districts in RttT phase 1 winners like FL & LA will soon have more money than they know what to do with.