Here’s a back of the envelope calculation on how U.S. education will adopt online and blended learning strategies over the next 10 years.
Home schooling will double to more than 3m students.
Virtual schools (mostly charter) will see full time enrollments climb to 1.5m. With home education, that’s almost 5m kids educated at home, or nearly 10%.
New blended schools, mostly charters, will serve more than 1m kids. A couple chains like Rocketship will serve a couple hundred thousand kids.
Existing charter networks will adopt blended models and serve more than 2m kids (maybe 2.5).
The number of public school students that blend their own learning by taking an online class where available (including credit recovery) will grow from 1.5m to 5m. That assumes that the handful of states that don’t have statewide programs get on board and that options improve for most students.
Here’s the big growth category: about 24,000 public schools serving 17m students will adopt blended models. (wow, is that even conceivable?)
By 2020, there will still be more than 20m kids in traditional paper & pencil public schools.
Here’s the table version. Where am I off?
|Schools (enrollment, millions)||2010||2020|
|Home school||1.5||3.0||Easier to consider|
|Virtual schools (full time)||0.3||1.5||5m learning at home|
|New blended schools||0.1||1.0||Rocketship etc|
|Charter conversions||0.1||2.0||Most CMOs|
|Part time online FTE||1.5||5.0||State virtuals|
|District blends||0.1||17.0||Big growth category|
|Traditional HS||13.0||5.0||A dying breed|
- How the US will blend (edreformer.com)
- What Does a Virtual Education Cost? (edreformer.com)
- Second Rocketship School Catapults into “Top 15” with Outstanding Student Achievement (eon.businesswire.com)
- Charter Schools Finding Niches (edreformer.com)
- Tom Vander Ark: Charter Schools Finding Niches (huffingtonpost.com)
- Tom Vander Ark: How digital learning will change America (huffingtonpost.com)
- Blended Learning Update (edreformer.com)
- How digital learning will change America (edreformer.com)