In a useful post by Michael Russo, a middle school tech director from Buffalo, futurist Ray Kurzweil’s 10 year predictions made in 1999 are examined.  Obviously the punch line is ‘not much changed.’  In the last 1990 I worked in a school district where we introduced online learning and laptop programs.  It’s frustrating that we’ve made so little progress, but the next 10 will be different–at least we’ll see Ray’s 2009 predictions come true.  Here’s Russo’s post:

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Ray predicted widespread tablet use by 2009

I’m reading Ray Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines now, which was written in 1999. In the book, Kurzweil makes predictions for the future in 2009, 2019, 2029 and beyond. In the predictions chapter for 2009, there is a section on education. I’d like to try a little experiment and present the section from the chapter, edited to where we really were in 2009. The excerpt is from p. 791-792. My edits of the original text are either in strike-through or bold face.

In the twentieth century, computers in schools were mostly on the trailing edge, with most effective learning from computers taking place in the home. Now in 2009, while schools are still not on the cutting edge, the profound importance of the computer as a knowledge tool is widely recognized. Computers play a central role in all facets of education except the classroom, as they do in other spheres of life.

The majority of reading is done on displays paper, although the “installed base” of paper documentsdisplays is still formidable beginning to appear. The generation of paper documents is beginning todwindling dwindle, however, as the books and other papers of largely twentieth-century vintage are beingrapidly scanned and stored passed over in favor of digital versions. Documents circa 2009 routinelyinclude embedded moving images and sounds continue to be delivered on paper.

Students of all ages typically do not have a computer of their own, which is a thin tablet-like device weighing under a pound with a very high resolution display suitable for reading. Students interact with theircomputers primarily by voice and by pointing with a device that looks like a pencil keyboard. Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking. Keyboarding classes continue to be offered to help students input more efficiently. Learning materials are accessed through print, wired, andwireless communication.

Intelligent courseware has emerged as a common means of learning. Virtual schools have appeared, replacing traditional schools. Recent controversial studies have shown that students can learn basic skills such as reading and math just as readily with interactive learning software as with human teachers, particularly when the ratio of students to human teachers is more than one to one. Although the studies have come under attack, most students and their parents have accepted this notion for years. There is controversy as to the effectiveness of virtual learning, but financial need is driving the growth of such offerings. The traditional mode of a human teacher instructing a group of children is still prevalent,  but schools are increasingly relying on investigating software approaches, leaving human teachers to attend primarily to issues of motivation, psychological well-being, and socialization. Many A fewchildren learn to read on their own using their personal computers before entering grade school.

Preschool and elementary school A select small group of children identified as low-level readersroutinely read at their intellectual level using print-to-speech reading software until their reading level catches up. These print-to-speech reading systems display the full image of documents and can read the print aloud while highlighting what is being read. Synthetic voices sound fully somewhat human. Although some educators expressed concern in the early ‘00 years that students would rely unduly on reading software, such systems have been readily accepted by children and their parents. The expense and logistics of reading systems have prevented their adoption for all students. Studies have shown that students improve their reading skills by being exposed to synchronized visual and auditory presentations of text.

Learning at a distance (for example, lectures and seminars in which the participants are geographically scattered) is growing in use, but is by no means commonplace.

Learning is becoming a significant portion of most jobs. Training and developing new skills is emerging as an ongoing responsibility in most careers, not just an occasional supplement, as the level of skill needed for meaningful employment soars even higher.

In 2009, we were not anywhere near where Kurzweil predicted, although we are beginning to move in the directions he indicated. It feels like it takes forever to make progress that we need to make, but I do believe the change agents that will eventually spur the change are the ones indicated in his text. In two different examples, Kurzweil mentions that acceptance of a new technology is by students and parents, essentially forcing the school to change. I think that is exactly the type of force that is going to provide true change in the education system.

The only paragraph that I did not make any edits to is the last one. That particular idea is timeless and apparent to most – adaptability in the workforce is the key to making it in the 21st century.

If you would like to see the original excerpt without my edits – look up the book at Google Books – those pages (791-792) are available to view there.

Maybe by 2019, we will realize some of the 2009 predictions

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Tom Vander Ark
Tom Vander Ark is author of Smart Parents, Smart Cities and Getting Smart. He is co-founder of Getting Smart and Learn Capital and serves on the boards of 4.0 Schools, eduInnovation, Digital Learning Institute, Imagination Foundation, Charter Board Partners and Bloomboard. Follow Tom on Twitter, @tvanderark.

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